Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
Yes
36%
No
64%
24h change
-3 pts
- Volume
- $10.2K
- 24h volume
- $1.1K
- Liquidity
- $38.1K
- Updated
- Nov 6, 2026 · 13:25 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
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The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the National Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the National Party in this election.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.