Will the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 Super Heavy booster explode?
Yes
18%
No
83%
24h change
-8.5 pts
- Volume
- $6.8K
- 24h volume
- $573
- Liquidity
- $1.6K
- Updated
- Nov 13, 2026 · 22:20 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the 15th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).
If the 15th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.