Will Trump veto a bill by February 1, 2027?
Yes
50%
No
51%
24h change
-26 pts
- Volume
- $14.9K
- 24h volume
- $10.9K
- Liquidity
- $31K
- Updated
- Nov 5, 2026 · 11:20 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump vetoes any bill or joint resolution between market creation and February 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A veto means the President returns a bill or joint resolution to Congress without signature, with objections, as provided in Article I, Section 7 of the U.S. Constitution, or a pocket veto. A pocket veto will be considered to have occurred on the date the bill or joint resolution is presented to the President, even if the pocket veto does not take effect until after February 1, 2027. In the event of ambiguity over the timing or effect of a pocket veto, this market will remain open until the status of the pocket veto is known. Veto threats, Statements of Administration Policy, and signing statements will not qualify.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government, including Congress.gov and the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.