Will the KMT win the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections?
Yes
26%
No
74%
24h change
-9 pts
- Volume
- $12.9K
- 24h volume
- $6.6K
- Liquidity
- $29.1K
- Updated
- Nov 12, 2026 · 01:05 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve according to the outcome of the Taipei and New Taipei mayoral elections that are currently scheduled for November 28, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “KMT” or “DPP” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “KMT” or “DPP” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.