Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by December 31?

  • World
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
  • 56 days left
Yes 60%
No 41%
24h change +27.5 pts
Volume
$29.4K
24h volume
$7.4K
Liquidity
$13.1K
Updated
Nov 5, 2026 · 19:55 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.

"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Saudi Arabia, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.

The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.

In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Saudi Arabia is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Geopolitics
  • Iran
  • Middle East
  • Military
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Yemen
  • yemeni houthis

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.