Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Sep 14, 2026
  • Awaiting resolution
Yes 45%
No 55%
24h change -8.5 pts
Volume
$22.6K
24h volume
$355
Liquidity
$26.1K
Updated
Oct 13, 2026 · 23:01 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

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About this market

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.

A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify.

If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
  • Elections
  • Global Elections
  • Politics
  • Sweden
  • Sweden Elections
  • Sweden Parliamentary Elections
  • World Elections

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.