Will Republicans win the Ohio Senate seat, and Democrats win Iowa and Maine?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Nov 3, 2026
  • 24 days left
Yes 5%
No 95%
24h change +2.6 pts
Volume
$577
24h volume
$491
Liquidity
$2.7K
Updated
Oct 10, 2026 · 02:35 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve according to the outcome of the United States Senate general elections in Ohio, Iowa, and Maine (including the special election in Ohio) that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, inclusive of any potential runoffs.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

If the results of one of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".

For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins all races.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
  • Ashley Hinson
  • election
  • Iowa Midterm
  • Jon Husted
  • Josh Turek
  • Maine Midterm
  • Maine Senate
  • Ohio Midterm
  • Ohio Senate
  • Politics
  • sherrod brown
  • Susan Collins

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.