Will Lee Fairclough win the 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election?
Yes
80%
No
20%
24h change
-3 pts
- Volume
- $11.6K
- 24h volume
- $3.4K
- Liquidity
- $11.5K
- Updated
- Nov 13, 2026 · 06:25 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
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AI edge over time
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The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
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About this market
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.