Will Democrats win the Iowa Governor election and Republicans win the Iowa Senate election?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Nov 4, 2026
  • 25 days left
Yes 45%
No 56%
24h change +7.5 pts
Volume
$9.7K
24h volume
$3.7K
Liquidity
$32.1K
Updated
Oct 10, 2026 · 04:30 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Iowa that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".

For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
  • Ashley Hinson
  • election
  • Iowa Midterm
  • Josh Turek
  • Politics
  • Rob Sand
  • US Election
  • Zach Lahn

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.