Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 31?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Nov 1, 2026
  • 21 days left
Yes 57%
No 43%
24h change +34 pts
Volume
$12.5K
24h volume
$10K
Liquidity
$1.8K
Updated
Oct 10, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if no flight departs from Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport (RUH) for a period of at least 24 consecutive hours, where that period begins between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Departures will be evaluated as displayed by FlightAware on its King Khalid Int'l Airport (Riyadh) RUH airport page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK) and the corresponding departures page (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK/departures). Only confirmed departures, displayed with an actual departure time, qualify; scheduled departures do not qualify. Announcements, NOTAMs, airline cancellations, or reports that the airport is closed, suspended, or restricted will not qualify on their own if FlightAware displays departures.

A qualifying period may begin as late as the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, and end after it. If a period without departures has begun but has not reached 24 consecutive hours by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until either a flight departs RUH or 24 consecutive hours have elapsed. A qualifying closure counts regardless of its cause.

The resolution source for this market will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/OERK).
  • Geopolitics
  • Houthis
  • Iran
  • Middle East
  • Politics
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Yemen

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.