Riksdag approves Swedish Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
  • 52 days left
Yes 67%
No 33%
24h change +6.5 pts
Volume
$901
24h volume
$901
Liquidity
$1K
Updated
Nov 9, 2026 · 16:35 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Riksdag approves a candidate for Prime Minister proposed by the Speaker by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

To qualify, a Speaker's proposal for Prime Minister must be approved in a Prime Minister vote (statsministeromröstning) in the Riksdag within this market's timeframe. A proposal is approved unless an absolute majority of the members of the Riksdag vote against it. A proposal naming the incumbent Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, will count if approved in such a vote.

Only a Prime Minister vote held after the September 13, 2026 Riksdag election, or after any subsequent election, will qualify. Rejected proposals will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Sweden or the Riksdag; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
  • Elections
  • Global Elections
  • International Election Props
  • Politics
  • Sweden
  • Sweden Elections
  • World

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.