Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
  • 55 days left
Yes 2%
No 98%
24h change +0.2 pts
Volume
$318.3K
24h volume
$318
Liquidity
$53K
Updated
Nov 5, 2026 · 20:40 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
  • Geopolitics
  • maduro
  • Politics
  • Trump
  • Venezuela

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.