Next US president 50+ years old at inauguration?
Yes
27%
No
74%
24h change
-24 pts
- Volume
- $7.8K
- 24h volume
- $7.8K
- Liquidity
- $14.6K
- Updated
- Nov 8, 2026 · 00:11 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual to be sworn in as President of the United States after Donald J. Trump is the listed age or older on the day on which they are sworn in. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they are sworn in. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth.
In the event that no individual other than Donald J. Trump has been sworn in as President of the United States by March 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official government sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.
The individual's age will be calculated on the day on which they are sworn in. A person will be considered to have advanced from one age to the next immediately upon the beginning of the calendar day of their day of birth.
In the event that no individual other than Donald J. Trump has been sworn in as President of the United States by March 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official government sources and official public records; however, a consensus of credible sources may suffice.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.