Curfew in a major French city by December 31, 2026?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Yes 100%
No 0%
24h change +49.5 pts
Volume
$29.1K
24h volume
$28K
Liquidity
$25.4K
Updated
Oct 19, 2026 · 20:15 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a curfew is officially announced in any part of Paris, Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, Nice, Nantes, Montpellier, Strasbourg, Bordeaux, or Lille, France between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The listed cities refer to the municipalities (communes) of those names, within their official municipal boundaries. Curfews applying only to other municipalities, including suburbs or neighboring municipalities within the same metropolitan area, will not qualify.

A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in a listed city, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A qualifying curfew may be citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of a listed city, and must be officially declared by the relevant municipality, the relevant prefecture (including the Paris Police Prefecture), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will qualify so long as it applies to at least part of a listed city.

Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not qualify. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not qualify unless they also impose a curfew as defined above.

Any qualifying curfew which is officially announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM Paris local time will count regardless of if or when it goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
  • Europe
  • France
  • France Riots
  • Paris
  • Politics
  • Protests
  • World

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.