China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
Oui
97%
Non
3%
Variation 24 h
+90.6 pts
- Volume
- $56.6K
- Volume 24 h
- $40K
- Liquidité
- $6.1K
- Mis à jour
- 13 nov. 2026 · 13:30 UTC
Probabilité dans le temps
Probabilité du marché
IA PolyForecast
L’historique des prix est encore en cours de collecte pour cette période.
Écart IA dans le temps
Pourquoi l’IA prévoit cette probabilité
Le raisonnement de l’IA apparaît ici dès qu’une prévision est générée pour ce marché.
Dernières actualités pertinentes
Aucune actualité pertinente trouvée.
À propos de ce marché
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Données de marché fournies par Polymarket. PolyForecast n’est pas affilié à Polymarket.