Will voter turnout be 79% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Oct 28, 2026
  • Awaiting resolution
Yes 9%
No 91%
24h change —
Volume
$2.9K
24h volume
$2.9K
Liquidity
$10.5K
Updated
Oct 28, 2026 · 08:40 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Israeli legislative election to the Knesset is at least the specified value. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The voter turnout rate is defined as the total number of votes cast (סה"כ קולות שהוזנו) divided by the total number of eligible voters (סה"כ בעלי זכות בחירה). (see 2022 example: https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/)

If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results reported by the Israeli government, including the Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if official results are not available.
  • Elections
  • Global Elections
  • International Election Props
  • Israel
  • Israel Election
  • Politics

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.