Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?

  • Technology
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2028
Yes 61%
No 40%
24h change -6.5 pts
Volume
$34.2K
24h volume
$231
Liquidity
$4.1K
Updated
Nov 5, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if two SpaceX Starships successfully execute a docking maneuver in a stable Earth orbit between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying docking maneuver must physically join two vessels, matching in velocity, into a connected structure via mating hardware for at least 60 continuous seconds. The two vessels must be in stable Earth orbit with a perigee of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth’s surface.

The docking of any two SpaceX vessels which each serve as an integrated rocket-and-spacecraft and both equal or exceed Starship in scale will qualify regardless of their contents or variant (standard, tanker, depot, HLS, test article, etc.). The two vessels must be free-flying. Any capsule or payload carried to orbit exclusively atop a separate launch vehicle will not qualify. If either vessel is passively placed into the mating interface of the other vessel, that conjunction will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Big Tech
  • Elon Musk
  • launch
  • Space
  • space exploration
  • SpaceX
  • starship
  • Tech

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.