Will Trump say "Transgender" on November 4?
Yes
>99%
No
<1%
24h change
—
- Volume
- $737
- 24h volume
- $737
- Liquidity
- $1.5K
- Updated
- Nov 4, 2026 · 22:30 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.
Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Period+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.