Will Trump say "Transgender" 7+ times during his Midterm Rally in Iowa?
Yes
51%
No
50%
24h change
—
- Volume
- $187
- 24h volume
- $187
- Liquidity
- $1.7K
- Updated
- Oct 22, 2026 · 17:40 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Sioux City, Iowa on October 22, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-sioux-city-ia-president-donald-j-trump-djt)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Iowa on October 22, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source will be audio/video of the event.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Iowa on October 22, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
The resolution source will be audio/video of the event.
For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.