Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?
Yes
3%
No
97%
24h change
-0.2 pts
- Volume
- $28.3K
- 24h volume
- $0
- Liquidity
- $12.9K
- Updated
- Oct 16, 2026 · 06:26 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.