Will Trump not visit China by November 22?
Yes
<1%
No
>99%
24h change
-24.9 pts
- Volume
- $503
- 24h volume
- $503
- Liquidity
- $5.3K
- Updated
- Nov 12, 2026 · 01:05 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
No relevant updates found.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins a visit to China before November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After November 22”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by November 22”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China.
If Donald Trump begins a visit to China before November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After November 22”.
If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by November 22”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.