Will Tom Emmer be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?
Yes
<1%
No
>99%
24h change
-29.2 pts
- Volume
- $3.8K
- 24h volume
- $3.3K
- Liquidity
- $4.4K
- Updated
- Nov 10, 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.