Will the US add between 0 and 25k jobs in October?
Yes
16%
No
84%
24h change
+4.6 pts
- Volume
- $1.8K
- 24h volume
- $447
- Liquidity
- $918
- Updated
- Oct 11, 2026 · 12:01 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
No relevant updates found.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for October 2026, scheduled to be released on November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.