UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
  • 58 days left
Yes 15%
No 85%
24h change -3.5 pts
Volume
$314K
24h volume
$13.6K
Liquidity
$21.8K
Updated
Nov 3, 2026 · 18:10 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

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About this market

On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Geopolitics
  • Iran
  • Peace Deal
  • Politics
  • U.S. x Iran

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.