Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 13?
Yes
43%
No
58%
24h change
-23.5 pts
- Volume
- $957
- 24h volume
- $289
- Liquidity
- $80
- Updated
- Nov 2, 2026 · 11:35 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset is elected by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An individual serving as, appointed as, or deemed to be acting or temporary Speaker will not trigger a "Yes" resolution to this market. Only the successful election of the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset will result in this market's resolving to "Yes".
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a Speaker of the 26th Knesset is successfully elected. Otherwise, this market may not resolve until its expiration time passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset and the Government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An individual serving as, appointed as, or deemed to be acting or temporary Speaker will not trigger a "Yes" resolution to this market. Only the successful election of the first Speaker of the 26th Knesset will result in this market's resolving to "Yes".
This market may resolve to "Yes" as soon as a Speaker of the 26th Knesset is successfully elected. Otherwise, this market may not resolve until its expiration time passes.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Knesset and the Government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.