Will the Democrats win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Nov 3, 2026
  • 2 days left
Yes 94%
No 6%
24h change +4.5 pts
Volume
$31.5K
24h volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
$24.9K
Updated
Oct 31, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Tarrant County in the general election for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.

If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other."

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Texas, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Tarrant County.
  • Elections
  • Midterms
  • Politics
  • Senate Elections
  • Texas Midterm
  • Texas Senate
  • US Election

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.