Will Republicans win white voters in the midterms?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Nov 7, 2026
  • 16 days left
Yes 94%
No 7%
24h change +4.5 pts
Volume
$29K
24h volume
$13.2K
Liquidity
$30.1K
Updated
Oct 21, 2026 · 16:20 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party that wins the greatest share of white voters in the midterm elections according to exit polling provided by CNN.

This market will resolve according to the national exit polling for the United States House, as viewed on the applicable cnn.com webpage at 12:00PM ET on November 6, 2026.

In the event of a tie for first place, this market will resolve based on the party, among those tied, whose name comes first alphabetically.

In the event that CNN provides applicable exit polling but it is not available at the time specified above, this market will await an update for one full calendar day before moving to the media organizations listed below.

In the event that CNN does not provide applicable exit polling, this market will resolve according to the exit polling provided by CBS or, should CBS also not provide applicable polling, ABC.

If none of the listed organizations provide applicable exit polling by November 7, 2026 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
  • Midterms
  • Politics
  • Polling

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.