Will Nicolás Maduro win the next Venezuelan presidential election?
Yes
1%
No
99%
24h change
-6.5 pts
- Volume
- $628
- 24h volume
- $390
- Liquidity
- $13.1K
- Updated
- Oct 28, 2026 · 03:35 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Venezuelan presidential election to take place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET.
Any appointment or selection of a president not made through a popular election does not qualify as a presidential election.
If no Venezuelan presidential election takes place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If a Venezuelan presidential election takes place, but no winner is officially declared by 11:59 PM ET on the 365th calendar day following the date of the election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the winner of the election as officially declared by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority.
Any appointment or selection of a president not made through a popular election does not qualify as a presidential election.
If no Venezuelan presidential election takes place by December 31, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. If a Venezuelan presidential election takes place, but no winner is officially declared by 11:59 PM ET on the 365th calendar day following the date of the election, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the winner of the election as officially declared by the National Electoral Council of Venezuela, or a successor Venezuelan electoral authority.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.