Will Lautaro Martinez finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes
<1%
No
>99%
24h change
-26.4 pts
- Volume
- $2.6K
- 24h volume
- $2.5K
- Liquidity
- $2.8K
- Updated
- Oct 17, 2026 · 10:40 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 2 of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. Otherwise, the corresponding market will resolve to "No".
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony is scheduled to take place in London on October 26, 2026.
If more than 2 players tie for the top 2 in the award ranking, resolution will follow France Football's official top 2 list. Any players tied at the same placement with no further official distinction will be resolved alphabetically by name.
If the award is postponed after November 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the final two places have not been determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and/or UEFA, including the official Ballon d'Or announcement; a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.