Will Kiernan Shipka be the live-action Gwen Stacy?
Yes
<1%
No
>99%
24h change
-0.8 pts
- Volume
- $171
- 24h volume
- $0
- Liquidity
- $814
- Updated
- Oct 10, 2026 · 11:30 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
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The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will play Gwen Stacy in a live-action feature film by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Actors announced to play the character in animated films or TV series will not qualify. Only live-action feature film castings will qualify.
If more than one actor is announced to portray Gwen Stacy in the same film, only the actor cast in the principal role of the character will qualify. Actors cast to portray a younger, older, alternate, or variant version of the character, and actors serving as body doubles, stunt doubles, or voice doubles, will not qualify.
If no actor is announced as the live-action Gwen Stacy within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No actor chosen by end of 2027".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Sony Pictures, Marvel, their parent companies, or another authorized representative of the Spider-Man franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Actors announced to play the character in animated films or TV series will not qualify. Only live-action feature film castings will qualify.
If more than one actor is announced to portray Gwen Stacy in the same film, only the actor cast in the principal role of the character will qualify. Actors cast to portray a younger, older, alternate, or variant version of the character, and actors serving as body doubles, stunt doubles, or voice doubles, will not qualify.
If no actor is announced as the live-action Gwen Stacy within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No actor chosen by end of 2027".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Sony Pictures, Marvel, their parent companies, or another authorized representative of the Spider-Man franchise. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.