Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Apr 18, 2027
Yes 38%
No 63%
24h change —
Volume
$832
24h volume
$832
Liquidity
$21.7K
Updated
Oct 13, 2026 · 15:25 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

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About this market

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
  • Elections
  • France
  • French Election
  • French Elections
  • Global Elections
  • International Election Props
  • Politics
  • World

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.