Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Yes 33%
No 67%
24h change +8.5 pts
Volume
$13.5K
24h volume
$5.9K
Liquidity
$23.5K
Updated
Oct 13, 2026 · 02:30 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gyanesh Kumar ceases to be Chief Election Commissioner of India for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Gyanesh Kumar's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gyanesh Kumar, the Election Commission of India, and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
  • Cockroach Party
  • India
  • Politics

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.