Will Gyanesh Kumar be out as Chief Election Commissioner of India by December 31?
Yes
33%
No
67%
24h change
+8.5 pts
- Volume
- $13.5K
- 24h volume
- $5.9K
- Liquidity
- $23.5K
- Updated
- Oct 13, 2026 · 02:30 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
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Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Gyanesh Kumar ceases to be Chief Election Commissioner of India for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gyanesh Kumar's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gyanesh Kumar, the Election Commission of India, and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gyanesh Kumar's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Gyanesh Kumar, the Election Commission of India, and the government of India; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.