Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by June 30, 2027?
Yes
25%
No
76%
24h change
—
- Volume
- $379
- 24h volume
- $379
- Liquidity
- $13.3K
- Updated
- Oct 29, 2026 · 04:35 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Flávio Bolsonaro returns to Brazil between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "return" is defined as Flávio Bolsonaro physically entering the terrestrial territory of Brazil. Whether or not Bolsonaro enters Brazilian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
If it is confirmed that Flávio Bolsonaro was present in the terrestrial territory of Brazil at the time of market creation, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.