Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Oui
2%
Non
98%
Variation 24 h
-0.1 pts
- Volume
- $43.8M
- Volume 24 h
- $45.6K
- Liquidité
- $638.8K
- Mis à jour
- 11 oct. 2026 · 13:15 UTC
Probabilité dans le temps
Probabilité du marché
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À propos de ce marché
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Données de marché fournies par Polymarket. PolyForecast n’est pas affilié à Polymarket.