Will Astera Labs (ALAB) be added to the S&P 500 by December 31, 2026?
Yes
34%
No
67%
24h change
—
- Volume
- $350
- 24h volume
- $350
- Liquidity
- $36
- Updated
- Oct 28, 2026 · 15:40 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
No relevant updates found.
About this market
The S&P 500 undergoes quarterly reconstitution on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. The next rebalance is currently scheduled for December 18, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index.
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if S&P Global Inc. announces that the listed company will be added to the S&P 500 index by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the listed ticker must match the announced ticker added to the index.
An announcement from S&P will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the listed company has actually been added to the S&P 500 index by the resolution date.
The primary resolution source will be official announcements from S&P Global Inc. (https://www.spglobal.com/en/press/press-release).
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.