Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year?
Yes
6%
No
94%
24h change
+2.6 pts
- Volume
- $27K
- 24h volume
- $6.4K
- Liquidity
- $17K
- Updated
- Nov 8, 2026 · 22:35 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
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Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
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About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.