US Gov confirms PHP2Shell exploited by December 31, 2026?
Yes
>99%
No
<1%
24h change
+11.4 pts
- Volume
- $8.8K
- 24h volume
- $2.7K
- Liquidity
- $11.9K
- Updated
- Oct 27, 2026 · 04:10 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
No relevant updates found.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) adds CVE-2026-109618 or CVE-2026-109619 (the critical PHP vulnerabilities known as “PHP2Shell”) to its Known Exploited Vulnerabilities (KEV) Catalog by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The addition of either CVE will qualify. If either CVE has already been added to the KEV Catalog at the time this market is created, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The “Date Added” shown for the relevant entry in the KEV Catalog will be used to determine whether the addition occurred within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog); however, official CISA announcements and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The addition of either CVE will qualify. If either CVE has already been added to the KEV Catalog at the time this market is created, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The “Date Added” shown for the relevant entry in the KEV Catalog will be used to determine whether the addition occurred within this market's timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be CISA's Known Exploited Vulnerabilities Catalog (https://www.cisa.gov/known-exploited-vulnerabilities-catalog); however, official CISA announcements and a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.