US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Yes 4%
No 96%
24h change +0.3 pts
Volume
$125.7K
24h volume
$5.9K
Liquidity
$48.8K
Updated
Oct 13, 2026 · 09:02 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States government collects a payment from any shipping company, vessel, foreign government, or other relevant entity as a fee, toll, or reimbursement for transit through the Strait of Hormuz, or for the protection of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".

Any payment amount or rate will count. Payments may be monetary or in-kind (e.g., a share of cargo or oil) and may be collected directly by the US government or by an agent, contractor, or intermediary collecting on its behalf, provided the payment is made under a US-imposed fee or a compensation arrangement.

The announcement, signing, or establishment of a fee program, executive order, regulation, or collection mechanism will not by itself qualify; at least one payment must actually be received by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Payments collected by Iran or any other party acting on its own behalf will not count. Payments under preexisting obligations, including US customs duties, tariffs on goods imported into the United States, or standard port charges, will not count unless newly imposed as a condition of Strait of Hormuz transit or protection.

The resolution sources will be official announcements from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.
  • Geopolitics
  • Iran
  • Iran Ceasefire
  • Oil
  • Politics
  • Strait of Hormuz
  • toll
  • U.S. x Iran
  • US-Iran

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.