Will the fight be won by submission?
Yes
50%
No
51%
24h change
—
- Volume
- $0
- 24h volume
- $0
- Liquidity
- $33
- Updated
- Oct 20, 2026 · 17:40 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
No relevant updates found.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Gaston Bolaños and Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."
If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.