Will Aaron Pico win in Round 3?

  • Sports
  • Open
  • Resolves Oct 25, 2026
  • 4 days left
Yes 27%
No 74%
24h change —
Volume
$0
24h volume
$0
Liquidity
$2.6K
Updated
Oct 21, 2026 · 03:15 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Aaron Pico defeats Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 3, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed.

If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No."

If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
  • Games
  • Sports
  • UFC

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.