Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?
Yes
7%
No
93%
24h change
-1.6 pts
- Volume
- $65.8K
- 24h volume
- $6.8K
- Liquidity
- $36K
- Updated
- Oct 22, 2026 · 15:02 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, presidential memorandum, or proclamation, signs any bill into law, or otherwise formally directs the federal government to rename New Mexico to "New America" or any other name including "America" by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A formal Trump administration directive to rename New Mexico, including through the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "rename" includes directing the federal government to use the new name when referring to the state, regardless of whether the state's legal name is changed.
Statements, social media posts, or expressions of support for renaming New Mexico will not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying formal action or directive.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A formal Trump administration directive to rename New Mexico, including through the U.S. Board on Geographic Names, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "rename" includes directing the federal government to use the new name when referring to the state, regardless of whether the state's legal name is changed.
Statements, social media posts, or expressions of support for renaming New Mexico will not qualify unless accompanied by a qualifying formal action or directive.
This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.