Will Hong Kong have between 50-70mm of precipitation in October?

  • Other
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 8, 2027
Yes <1%
No >99%
24h change +0.1 pts
Volume
$3.8K
24h volume
$228
Liquidity
$1.2K
Updated
Oct 12, 2026 · 15:31 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between October 1 and October 31, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.

If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in October 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.

If the relevant data is not available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
  • Precipitation
  • Recurring
  • Weather

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.