Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 21?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Oct 21, 2026
  • Awaiting resolution
Yes <1%
No >99%
24h change -3.5 pts
Volume
$1.8K
24h volume
$774
Liquidity
$15.8K
Updated
Oct 21, 2026 · 18:40 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any full calendar day between the day of market creation and the specified date, inclusive (Paris time), passes without any curfew in effect in any part of the City of Paris, France. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A calendar day passes without any curfew in effect if, at no point between 12:00 AM and 11:59 PM Paris time on that day, a curfew is in effect in any part of the City of Paris.

The City of Paris refers to the municipality (commune) of Paris, within its official municipal boundaries.

A curfew refers to a governmental order which generally prohibits the general population from being present in, or moving through, public spaces in the City of Paris, or a defined area of it, during a specific timeframe or specific hours. A curfew of any scope will count, whether citywide or limited to specific arrondissements, districts, or neighborhoods of the City of Paris, and must be officially declared by the City of Paris, the Paris Police Prefecture (Préfecture de police), or a French national authority. A broader curfew (e.g. department-wide or nationwide) will count so long as it applies to at least part of the City of Paris.

Unofficial guidance, voluntary advisories, curfews applying only to minors or other specific groups, and conditional or prospective statements that a curfew may be imposed will not be considered curfews for the purposes of this market. Orders restricting demonstrations or gatherings, closures of specific parks, facilities or venues, restrictions on business hours or sales, and transit suspensions will not be considered curfews unless they also impose a curfew as defined above.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government announcements; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
  • France
  • France Riots
  • Paris
  • Politics
  • Protests

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.