Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Nov 4, 2026
  • 22 days left
Yes 59%
No 42%
24h change —
Volume
$5.5K
24h volume
$5.5K
Liquidity
$197.3K
Updated
Oct 12, 2026 · 21:40 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

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About this market

The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/urg.pdf
  • Elections
  • Geopolitics
  • Iran
  • Midterms
  • Oil
  • Politics
  • Senate
  • Strait of Hormuz
  • United States

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.