Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?
Yes
9%
No
91%
24h change
-1.5 pts
- Volume
- $19.4K
- 24h volume
- $5.2K
- Liquidity
- $26K
- Updated
- Oct 30, 2026 · 23:55 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new Government of Israel is officially sworn in by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe.
Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
To qualify, a newly formed government, headed by a Prime Minister and composed of appointed ministers must be sworn in before the Knesset within this market's timeframe.
Only a government formed as a result of the 2026 Knesset election or any subsequent election will qualify. Caretaker or transitional governments, including the outgoing government continuing to serve in a caretaker capacity, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel or the Knesset; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.