Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Yes 9%
No 91%
24h change +6.9 pts
Volume
$255.3K
24h volume
$56.8K
Liquidity
$65.8K
Updated
Oct 19, 2026 · 20:40 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

No relevant updates found.

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kim Jong Un ceases to be Supreme Leader of North Korea for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kim Jong Un's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Kim Jong Un and the government of North Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
  • Geopolitics
  • North Korea
  • Politics
  • World

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.