Kash Patel out by December 31?
Yes
21%
No
79%
24h change
+3.5 pts
- Volume
- $472K
- 24h volume
- $8.6K
- Liquidity
- $14K
- Updated
- Nov 6, 2026 · 23:45 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Kash Patel ceases to be the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation for any period of by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Patel's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.