France defaults on debt by December 31, 2027?
Yes
8%
No
92%
24h change
-8.5 pts
- Volume
- $16.9K
- 24h volume
- $11.1K
- Liquidity
- $15.7K
- Updated
- Oct 28, 2026 · 06:05 UTC
Probability over time
Market probability
PolyForecast AI
Price history is still being collected for this range.
AI edge over time
Why the AI forecasts this probability
The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.
Latest relevant updates
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About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the French government fails to make a scheduled payment on any French government note, bond, or bill at any point between market creation and December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any French sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor), Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any French sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the French Treasury (Agence France Trésor), Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.