Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

  • Politics
  • Open
  • Resolves Nov 4, 2026
  • 21 days left
Yes 24%
No 77%
24h change -2 pts
Volume
$3.9M
24h volume
$1.8K
Liquidity
$135.1K
Updated
Oct 13, 2026 · 18:41 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
  • Elections
  • Fiscal
  • Politics
  • referendum
  • referendums midterms
  • Taxes

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.