Bank of Japan decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

  • Economics
  • Open
  • Resolves Oct 30, 2026
  • 12 days left
Yes <1%
No >99%
24h change —
Volume
$18.3K
24h volume
$0
Liquidity
$31.3K
Updated
Oct 17, 2026 · 10:20 UTC

Probability over time

Market probability PolyForecast AI

Why the AI forecasts this probability

The AI reasoning appears here once a forecast is generated for this market.

Latest relevant updates

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About this market

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.

If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
  • BOJ
  • Economic Policy
  • Economy
  • Global Rates
  • Japan
  • Recurring
  • World

Market data from Polymarket. PolyForecast is not affiliated with Polymarket.